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Retail Management Institute Newsletter -Fall-'01

RCME Presents "20/20 Foresight" with Carol Farmer
by Debra Black

Carol Farmer, leading futurist and consumer trend analyst.
Carol Farmer, leading futurist and consumer trend analyst, led Retail Consortium for Management Education participants on a lively journey into the future at its June 7th seminar.

We all talk about 20/20 hindsight, but I think we need 20/20 foresight, says the visionary Farmer, who has advised many of the world's leading companies on globalization, marketing, and positioning for more than 25 years.

Widely known for her astute and intuitive observations, her predictions have been called uncanny. Early in her career as a corporate counselor, she realized that connections were not being made between the physical and financial aspects of retail companies. She would walk around a store and could tell if a store was successful.

At Santa Clara, she demonstrated how economic, political, and social changes are shaping the consumer mood. The pace of life is continuing to accelerate. . . and at the same time the quality of life is deteriorating. Our souls get lost in the crush of the compression of change, she says.

Often, marketing projections are made based on the behavior of past generations, but Farmer says this is a big mistake. We are not like anybody who has lived before we did. And our children are in amazing compressed change.

"Times are very, very different. Families are totally different. The nuclear family has dropped to less than 25 percent of families," says Farmer. A new mix of ethnic and racial backgrounds and the wonderful diversity of our culture today has provided completely different experiences in society and in the workplace.

In the last five years, there has been a booming luxury market, catering to those of us with big aspirations. If you look at the popular culture, there's this massive desire to get rich instantly, Farmer says. We are also completely and totally media-blitzed. Everything happens in a nanosecond. We love fast fashion. We want to be entertained, but the ante keeps upping for what will entertain us.



Trader Joe's CEO, Dan Bane and crew discuss 20/20 Foresight in break-out session.
At the core of the American personality is a love for beating the system. "We'll beat any system. Any system that anybody can think up, we will find a way to beat it." This tension is always going on between American people and any social system, including health care and politics.

Farmer says that our biggest status symbol is control over our time. The ones who are the happiest are the ones who control their own time. 'Meaning' is real important to us, but we can't quite put our arms around it, she says.

"Who do you want to feel comfortable in your store?" she asks. Retailers need to target their cues and environment to a specific generation of individuals, not to a huge range. The most recent research to come along in terms of ways of segmenting people is by generations, says Farmer. Generational analysis from 1584 projecting to 2069 by researchers William Strauss and Neil Howe found that there are only four types of generations in American history. These four generations recur in order, and have a specific role to play. Studying this research can reveal applications not only for marketing to customers, but to every aspect of life, says Farmer.

Farmer used Maslow's hierarchy of human needs (safety-membership-status-self esteem-and self-actualization) to illustrate her marketing points. The higher a person rises on the pyramid, the worse it is for retail, she says. A self-actualized person does not really care what brand of jeans he or she wears.

The biggest trend of the next 20 years is what Farmer calls the "Second Wind," describing baby boomers ageless attitude.

We treasure experiences, not things. "Retailing should never be about 'stuff,' says Farmer. Department stores must position the one-day sale as a facilitator of experience. Nobody NEEDS anything; to make people WANT things, that's not so easy."


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