Latest Research: Changes in the Midsummer Drought
Climate change shifts rain patterns critical to planting cycles
Ed Maurer (CESE) and Iris Stewart-Frey (ESS) from the Environmental Justice and the Common Good Initiative, together with colleague Hugo Hidalgo (University of Costa Rica) and undergraduate student Researcher Kenneth Joseph (’22) published an article in Hydrology and Earth System Science. The mid-summer drought, veranillo or canícula, is a phenomenon experienced in many areas, including Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. It generally denotes a period of reduced rainfall in July–August that is important for the local planting cycle. The group of researchers worked to understand those definitions from prior studies and smallholder farmer feedback and then tested the impact on these varying definitions on projected changes under climate change. They found that the typical mid-summer drought pattern may not be occurring during the time or in the places it has historically; whether examining past or future changes or developing improved seasonal forecasts, the non-stationarity of its timing should be accommodated. Results from this study have been shared at a water and climate change workshop with smallholder farmer representatives. Implications inform ongoing local climate adaptation planning.
Citation: Maurer, E. P., Stewart, I. T., Joseph, K., and Hidalgo, H. G.: The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-