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Department ofEconomics

Papers

Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard

Kris James Mitchener and Gonçalo Pina

Journal of International Money and Finance 107, October 2020,

Abstract

We analyze whether trade shocks put pressure on pegs to break. Using new high-frequency data on prices and export portfolios from the classical gold standard era, we identify a negative causal relationship between export-price shocks and currency-risk premia in emerging market economies. The results indicate that negative export-price shocks increased the probability that countries would abandon their pegs.

LSB Research, ECON, 2020, Kris Mitchener