Beyond Black Friday; Leavey Professors Wei Shi and Byers Discuss Holiday Shopping Trends
For all the talk about inflation and economic uncertainty in the past year or two, consumers are showing no fear in their 2023 holiday shopping. A record-setting 200.4 million flocked to stores, sites, and apps on Black Friday this year, according to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“This past Black Friday, the sales actually surpassed the last three years, including the pandemic,” said Savannah Wei Shi, associate professor of marketing at the Leavey School of Business. “We’re really seeing this YOLO (you only live once) and FOMO (fear of missing out) coming out, and people are making up for lost time.”
It may help that Black Friday is no longer just a day. Or even a week. NRF’s data starts on Thanksgiving Day and runs through Cyber Monday — with Small Business Saturday in the middle — but the organization also defines the full holiday shopping season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31. That tracks with the consumer experience.
“I saw my first holiday ad on TV the day after Halloween,” said Charles (Chuck) Byers, professor of practice in marketing. “It’s not a day. It’s three months. The businesses that understand that do well for themselves.”
But in this extended holiday shopping period, what trends are worth the time? What messages resonate? Below, professors Shi and Byers offer their insights on the state of holiday shopping in 2023.
Shoppers Are Feeling the FOMO
Flash back to 2020, and the retail world was a drastically different place — not only because of the rapid acceleration of online shopping, but because of what people were buying. At-home delivery of groceries was a hotter commodity than luxury goods. To “treat yourself” might be ordering food at home rather than buying a brand-name watch.
“You were basically at home all the time,” Shi said of that timeframe. “Nobody needed to see your fancy handbags. But now, we see certain luxury stores are having lines out the door for holiday shopping. And people are kind of moving away from loungewear to start buying some — I don’t want to say decent clothing — but more formal clothes to go out into the world, and this time of year, to parties.”
Some of this is “compensation shopping” to make up for the holiday experiences people missed out on in past years as Shi noted. Both in personal shopping and also in shopping for gifts for others, people are more willing to spend. “The research has shown that when you are doing good for others, you have a higher willingness to pay. During the holidays, you tend to see the trade-off between the quality versus the cost happen less and less.”
Still, even when consumers are willing to pay a bit more, “the messages that go out to consumers during the holiday are still very much price-oriented,” Byers said. Product categories may wax and wane, messages may undergo subtle shifts, but language around “sales” will never die — especially during the holidays.
Shopping is Still an Experience
One trend that stands out to both Shi and Byers is the reinvigorated focus on bricks and mortar.
Per the NRF, online shopping remained the largest “destination” for consumers at 44%, but department stores accounted for 40% of shopping, clothing and accessories stores for 36%, and electronics stores for 29%.
“When I looked at numbers from Black Friday, what struck me was the duality of the behavior being reported,” Byers said. “Even with digital shopping, there’s a significant, and I think underappreciated, amount of shopping that still exists as a social activity.”
Anecdotally, he points out how many of his family members headed straight to the stores on Black Friday — as much out of tradition as out of the need to find something on sale. Both during and beyond the holidays, post-pandemic stores are searching for ways to make sure that trend continues.
“Those retailers who are elevating the shopping experience are ones that are doing the best in the brick and mortar,” Byers said. They’re carefully considering their store design and aesthetics, down to details such as music selection and scents. They’re training their employees to deliver a more boutique, personalized experience.
The messaging matters, too, Shi said. “A lot of businesses are building on that FOMO I mentioned and starting to market what they offer as a way to be nice to yourself. Treating yourself well, having a bit of luxury for yourself, even if it’s for a lower-priced product, it’s a way to reach people with this mindset.”
Shi noted that such a message works both online and in-person, too. Sometimes treating yourself can be about the shopping experience itself.
Delivering the Message
Some trends are clear: Holiday shopping in 2023 is robust. And it’s robust across both digital and physical spaces. What’s less clear is where businesses should spread their cheer in an extended holiday season full of noise. Social media? Search? TV ads?
The answer is not new: It depends on your audience.
Consider Gen Z, for instance. According to data from Shopify and Gallup, 48% of those ages 18 to 29 planned to do their holiday shopping via social media, compared with about a third for other age groups. TikTok and Instagram serve as the largest platforms.
“If you think about five years ago when you shopped, search was usually first,” Shi said. “But for these younger people now, they don’t use the wisdom of the crowd anymore. They use the wisdom of their friends.” And, if not their friends, the influencers in their feeds. It’s about the peer mindset, Shi said. Social recommendations feel more like they’re coming from friends and less like the top-down approach of traditional ads or search-based shopping.
Does that mean everyone should shift all their marketing funds to TikTok? Abandon search? No, but it does mean that companies should follow the age-old wisdom of knowing their audiences, both in terms of demographics and behavior.
Still, much like the price-sensitive language that dominates holiday marketing, some formats are resilient. Gen Z may have little patience for the classic 30-second TV ad, but brands should think twice before dismissing this format, Byers said. The expansion of streaming means TV still crosses demographics, and still offers undeniable reach.
“I don't care whether you're watching it on a small screen or a big screen,” Byers said. “The delivery mechanism is still video. The format is still 30 seconds. If you want to talk about holiday shopping content, you’d still better be writing the world's best television ads.”